As written on Fighting-mma.com

“The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz (15-6) is back in the UFC. It’s too bad he has to fight a top light heavyweight fighter in Forrest Griffin (16-6). Basically Tito Ortiz has not fought since May 24, 2008 when he lost to Lyoto Machida at UFC 84: Ill Will.

Tito already beat Forrest in their first mixed martial arts fight at UFC 59: Reality Check but that was a long time ago and that was his first fight after winning the Ultimate fighter reality show. Back than Griffin was still green and basically a rookie in MMA and was still honing his fighting skills. Well this is 2009 and that first fight was almost 50 UFC events ago. Griffin is much better and not the same fighter he was when the two first fought.

Back in 2006 Ortiz won the fight by split decision. Many thought Griffin actually won that fight but Tito edged out Griffin with more takedowns. He won that fight by split decision. This time around this fight won’t be that close. Tito Ortiz was supposed to fight Mark Coleman in his return to the UFC, however, on October 5, 2009, Ortiz reported that the fight was now off, and it later became known that Coleman was suffering from a knee injury. Now he gets a tough fight with Forrest Griffin.

It has been a while since Ortiz has fought or even prepared for a mixed martial arts fight and he will not be in fight shape when he steps back in the octagon. Tito has decent all round skills but he is slow and he is not the fighter he once was. He won’t be able to keep up to Forrest’s pace. Forrest was always a fighter that won his fights on pure heart. But as he has had to step up in level of competition he has had to match his skills to match his heart.

This is a perfect fight for Griffin. He has had problems with strikers as he was out struck in his fight with Anderson Silva at UFC 101: Declaration and Rashad Evans at UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008 and with his fight Quinton Jackson at UFC 86: Jackson vs. Griffin. Ortiz is not the striker as the previous mentioned fighters and he will not have the power to hurt Griffin in the stand up.

Griffin has the reach advantage and he will back away Ortiz with his reach. Ortiz won’t be able to handle Griffin’s leg kicks. Forrest is the bigger fighter and Tito won’t be able come in for the clinch or use his wrestling skills. As much has he wants to get this fight on the groun, Giffin has worked heavily on his sprawling and now trains at Xtreme Couture with one Randy Couture and he will have insight on how to avoid Tito’s shot attempts.

Bottom Line: Tito is not the fighter he once was 5 years ago. He will be rusty and not quick enough to take down the bigger fighter. Forrest is a workhorse, who has evolved into a very good fighter while Tito has been partying with his porn star wife, being on the Celebrity Apprentice with Donald Trump and working on other activities like his clothing line.

Griffin the other hand had been training regularly and been in high man event level type MMA fights. He may have had some loses but there were against top level fighters like Anderson Silva at UFC 101: Declaration, Rashad Evans at UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008, and Keith Jardine at UFC 66: Liddell vs. Ortiz. He has had some wins over Quinton Jackson at UFC 86: Jackson vs. Griffin and Shogun at UFC 76: Knockout. If Tito fought Rampage or Shogun would he have been able to beat them? Highly unlikely.

I am surprises the lines are not greater for Griffin. At -165 I think this fight is a steal. It might have been Griffin’s poor performance versus Anderson Silva or the fact that Tito is a very popular fighter to explain why the UFC betting lines are so soft.

Forrest has problems with strikers and Tito does not have the greatest striking ability. Yes Ortiz has had back problems which may explain why he last couple of performances was not so good but he will be very rusty in his UFC return. Griffin will not be hurt by Tito’s striking whatsoever. Tito does have the wrestling advantage and will get the takedowns but Griffin is pretty good on his back and will use his long legs to back up Tito and escape. Tito will not be able to ground and pound Griffin out in this fight since he is the smaller fighter and Griffin can use his size to nullify Ortiz’s ground and pound game.

Griffin has the size and reach advantage and he will push the pace of this fight. Tito will not be use to the pace, the size and the pressure that Griffin will push in this fight. Betting wise I love the lines for he favorite and at +165, I think this is a very good bet to make on Griffin. Forrest will stay outside of Tito shot attempts and pick Ortiz out with his jabs. Griffin will pick apart Tito with his striking and has developed enough skills to avert any of Tito shot attempts.

Look for Griffin to pick apart Ortiz for a Unanimous Decision Victory

ODDS : “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz (+135) vs. Forrest Griffin (-165)